For the week ending February 21st, 2020, our forecast landed on a BUILD/INCREASE of 3,045,000 barrels for the week in US commercial crude oil inventory. The forecast is represented in the first, small table, and is based on our Exports and Adjustment though (as of today; to avoid confusion) we are now presenting what we believe the EIA will report in Exports and Adjustment. In accordance with EIA practice, their forecasted Export number is rounded to the nearest thousand barrels. Our actual Exports look differently. Also, here is our EIA Weekly Adjustment Theory.
For the data table below, we have the following definitions:
- PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, EXPORTS, REFINING and ADJUSTMENT are stated in BARRELS PER DAY.
- RESULT is the total amount of barrels that have been added/removed for the WEEK, not daily.
- SPR is the amount of barrels remaining in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves.
- STOCKS is the amount of barrels remaining in US Commercial Inventory.
- CUSHING is the amount of barrels remaining in Cushing, Oklahoma.
Our forecast, per data metric.
| Week Ending | Production | Imports | Exports | Refining | Adjustment | Result | SPR | Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/21/2020 | 13,000,000 | 6,800,000 | 3,897,000 | 16,000,000 | 532,000 | 3,045,000 | 634,967,000 | 445,928,000 |
Here are the EIA results for the past 60 weeks, showing year-on-year progress.
| Week Ending | Production | Imports | Exports | Refining | Adjustment | Result | SPR | Stocks | Cushing | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/28/2018 | 11,700,000 | 7,392,000 | 2,237,000 | 17,760,000 | 905,999 | 7,000 | 649,139,000 | 441,418,000 | 41,932,000 | GOV SHUTDOWN |
| 1/4/2019 | 11,700,000 | 7,846,000 | 2,065,000 | 17,566,000 | -155,001 | -1,680,000 | 649,139,000 | 439,738,000 | 42,262,000 | |
| 1/11/2019 | 11,900,000 | 7,527,000 | 2,966,000 | 17,223,000 | 378,713 | -2,683,000 | 649,139,000 | 437,055,000 | 41,519,000 | |
| 1/18/2019 | 11,900,000 | 8,191,000 | 2,035,000 | 17,049,000 | 131,570 | 7,970,000 | 649,139,000 | 445,025,000 | 41,329,000 | |
| 1/25/2019 | 11,900,000 | 7,083,000 | 1,944,000 | 16,463,000 | -444,715 | 919,000 | 649,139,000 | 445,944,000 | 41,184,000 | |
| 2/1/2019 | 11,900,000 | 7,146,000 | 2,870,000 | 16,633,000 | 637,428 | 1,263,000 | 649,139,000 | 447,207,000 | 42,625,000 | |
| 2/8/2019 | 11,900,000 | 6,210,000 | 2,364,000 | 15,768,000 | 540,999 | 3,633,000 | 649,139,000 | 450,840,000 | 41,609,000 | |
| 2/15/2019 | 12,000,000 | 7,522,000 | 3,607,000 | 15,711,000 | 320,570 | 3,672,000 | 649,139,000 | 454,512,000 | 45,022,000 | |
| 2/22/2019 | 12,100,000 | 5,917,000 | 3,359,000 | 15,890,000 | -3,287 | -8,647,000 | 649,139,000 | 445,865,000 | 46,650,000 | |
| 3/1/2019 | 12,100,000 | 7,001,000 | 2,803,000 | 15,990,000 | 699,999 | 7,069,000 | 649,126,000 | 452,934,000 | 47,523,000 | |
| 3/8/2019 | 12,000,000 | 6,746,000 | 2,546,000 | 16,020,000 | -731,715 | -3,862,000 | 649,126,000 | 449,072,000 | 46,851,000 | |
| 3/15/2019 | 12,100,000 | 6,932,000 | 3,392,000 | 16,198,000 | -811,858 | -9,589,000 | 649,126,000 | 439,483,000 | 46,383,000 | |
| 3/22/2019 | 12,100,000 | 6,540,000 | 2,886,000 | 15,831,000 | 476,999 | 2,800,000 | 649,126,000 | 442,283,000 | 46,924,000 | |
| 3/29/2019 | 12,200,000 | 6,763,000 | 2,723,000 | 15,849,000 | 642,999 | 7,238,000 | 649,126,000 | 449,521,000 | 47,125,000 | |
| 4/5/2019 | 12,200,000 | 6,599,000 | 2,349,000 | 16,100,000 | 654,142 | 7,029,000 | 649,126,000 | 456,550,000 | 45,992,000 | |
| 4/12/2019 | 12,100,000 | 5,992,000 | 2,401,000 | 16,078,000 | 187,570 | -1,396,000 | 649,126,000 | 455,154,000 | 44,449,000 | |
| 4/19/2019 | 12,200,000 | 7,149,000 | 2,681,000 | 16,583,000 | 697,713 | 5,479,000 | 649,126,000 | 460,633,000 | 44,912,000 | |
| 4/26/2019 | 12,300,000 | 7,414,000 | 2,611,000 | 16,446,000 | 685,142 | 9,934,000 | 648,587,000 | 470,567,000 | 45,177,000 | |
| 5/3/2019 | 12,200,000 | 6,693,000 | 2,322,000 | 16,405,000 | -856,430 | -3,963,000 | 647,717,000 | 466,604,000 | 45,998,000 | |
| 5/10/2019 | 12,100,000 | 7,612,000 | 3,347,000 | 16,676,000 | 834,856 | 5,431,000 | 645,953,000 | 472,035,000 | 47,803,000 | |
| 5/17/2019 | 12,200,000 | 6,943,000 | 2,922,000 | 16,578,000 | 871,999 | 4,740,000 | 644,818,000 | 476,775,000 | 49,069,000 | |
| 5/24/2019 | 12,300,000 | 6,862,000 | 3,317,000 | 16,767,000 | 881,713 | -282,000 | 644,818,000 | 476,493,000 | 49,053,000 | |
| 5/31/2019 | 12,400,000 | 7,927,000 | 3,298,000 | 16,938,000 | 876,285 | 6,771,000 | 644,818,000 | 483,264,000 | 50,844,000 | |
| 6/7/2019 | 12,300,000 | 7,611,000 | 3,122,000 | 17,064,000 | 589,999 | 2,205,000 | 644,818,000 | 485,469,000 | 52,940,000 | |
| 6/14/2019 | 12,200,000 | 7,467,000 | 3,422,000 | 17,264,000 | 575,428 | -3,105,000 | 644,818,000 | 482,364,000 | 53,582,000 | |
| 6/21/2019 | 12,100,000 | 6,656,000 | 3,770,000 | 17,337,000 | 524,999 | -12,782,000 | 644,818,000 | 469,582,000 | 51,836,000 | |
| 6/28/2019 | 12,200,000 | 7,585,000 | 2,990,000 | 17,290,000 | 339,142 | -1,091,000 | 644,818,000 | 468,491,000 | 52,488,000 | |
| 7/5/2019 | 12,300,000 | 7,302,000 | 3,048,000 | 17,438,000 | -473,001 | -9,499,000 | 644,818,000 | 458,992,000 | 52,178,000 | |
| 7/12/2019 | 12,000,000 | 6,832,000 | 2,534,000 | 17,267,000 | 523,856 | -3,116,000 | 644,818,000 | 455,876,000 | 50,827,000 | |
| 7/19/2019 | 11,300,000 | 7,028,000 | 3,292,000 | 17,034,000 | 450,142 | -10,835,000 | 644,818,000 | 445,041,000 | 50,398,000 | |
| 7/26/2019 | 12,200,000 | 6,663,000 | 2,574,000 | 16,991,000 | -511,715 | -8,496,000 | 644,818,000 | 436,545,000 | 48,865,000 | |
| 8/2/2019 | 12,300,000 | 7,148,000 | 1,865,000 | 17,777,000 | 534,713 | 2,385,000 | 644,818,000 | 438,930,000 | 47,361,000 | |
| 8/9/2019 | 12,300,000 | 7,714,000 | 2,683,000 | 17,302,000 | 196,713 | 1,580,000 | 644,818,000 | 440,510,000 | 44,821,000 | |
| 8/16/2019 | 12,300,000 | 7,218,000 | 2,803,000 | 17,702,000 | 596,713 | -2,732,000 | 644,818,000 | 437,778,000 | 42,336,000 | |
| 8/23/2019 | 12,500,000 | 5,928,000 | 3,019,000 | 17,408,000 | 566,570 | -10,027,000 | 644,818,000 | 427,751,000 | 40,356,000 | |
| 8/30/2019 | 12,400,000 | 6,904,000 | 3,061,000 | 17,381,000 | 456,428 | -4,771,000 | 644,818,000 | 422,980,000 | 40,126,000 | |
| 9/6/2019 | 12,400,000 | 6,725,000 | 3,295,000 | 17,495,000 | 677,570 | -6,912,000 | 644,818,000 | 416,068,000 | 39,328,000 | |
| 9/13/2019 | 12,400,000 | 7,050,000 | 3,175,000 | 16,707,000 | 583,142 | 1,058,000 | 644,818,000 | 417,126,000 | 38,681,000 | |
| 9/20/2019 | 12,500,000 | 6,378,000 | 2,983,000 | 16,513,000 | 962,570 | 2,412,000 | 644,818,000 | 419,538,000 | 40,937,000 | |
| 9/27/2019 | 12,400,000 | 6,291,000 | 2,867,000 | 16,017,000 | 636,428 | 3,104,000 | 644,818,000 | 422,642,000 | 40,736,000 | |
| 10/4/2019 | 12,600,000 | 6,224,000 | 3,401,000 | 15,656,000 | 622,570 | 2,927,000 | 644,618,000 | 425,569,000 | 41,677,000 | |
| 10/11/2019 | 12,600,000 | 6,295,000 | 3,248,000 | 15,436,000 | 933,570 | 9,281,000 | 643,349,000 | 434,850,000 | 42,953,000 | |
| 10/18/2019 | 12,600,000 | 5,857,000 | 3,683,000 | 15,865,000 | 705,570 | -1,699,000 | 642,350,000 | 433,151,000 | 44,459,000 | |
| 10/25/2019 | 12,600,000 | 6,697,000 | 3,327,000 | 15,998,000 | 742,856 | 5,702,000 | 641,652,000 | 438,853,000 | 46,031,000 | |
| 11/1/2019 | 12,600,000 | 6,077,000 | 2,371,000 | 15,761,000 | 487,713 | 7,929,000 | 640,952,000 | 446,782,000 | 47,745,000 | KEYSTONE OUTAGE |
| 11/8/2019 | 12,800,000 | 5,750,000 | 2,633,000 | 15,916,000 | 109,856 | 2,219,000 | 639,509,000 | 449,001,000 | 46,516,000 | KEYSTONE OUTAGE |
| 11/15/2019 | 12,800,000 | 5,972,000 | 3,027,000 | 16,435,000 | 605,285 | 1,379,000 | 637,537,000 | 450,380,000 | 44,221,000 | |
| 11/22/2019 | 12,900,000 | 6,190,000 | 3,480,000 | 16,334,000 | 753,285 | 1,572,000 | 636,170,000 | 451,952,000 | 44,124,000 | |
| 11/29/2019 | 12,900,000 | 5,989,000 | 3,135,000 | 16,798,000 | 206,856 | -4,856,000 | 635,166,000 | 447,096,000 | 43,822,000 | |
| 12/6/2019 | 12,800,000 | 6,887,000 | 3,400,000 | 16,597,000 | 399,142 | 822,000 | 634,968,000 | 447,918,000 | 40,429,000 | |
| 12/13/2019 | 12,800,000 | 6,579,000 | 3,633,000 | 16,562,000 | 660,856 | -1,085,000 | 634,967,000 | 446,833,000 | 40,164,000 | |
| 12/20/2019 | 12,900,000 | 6,809,000 | 3,397,000 | 16,980,000 | -114,001 | -5,474,000 | 634,967,000 | 441,359,000 | 37,771,000 | |
| 12/27/2019 | 12,900,000 | 6,352,000 | 4,462,000 | 17,283,000 | 855,428 | -11,463,000 | 634,967,000 | 429,896,000 | 36,322,000 | |
| 1/3/2020 | 12,900,000 | 6,730,000 | 3,064,000 | 16,897,000 | 497,285 | 1,164,000 | 634,967,000 | 431,060,000 | 35,501,000 | |
| 1/10/2020 | 13,000,000 | 6,552,000 | 3,481,000 | 16,973,000 | 537,856 | -2,549,000 | 634,967,000 | 428,511,000 | 35,843,000 | |
| 1/17/2020 | 13,000,000 | 6,432,000 | 3,414,000 | 16,857,000 | 781,142 | -405,000 | 634,967,000 | 428,106,000 | 34,882 000 | |
| 1/24/2020 | 13,000,000 | 6,660,000 | 3,509,000 | 15,924,000 | 279,856 | 3,548,000 | 634,967,000 | 431,654,000 | 35,640,000 | |
| 1/31/2020 | 12,900,000 | 6,615,000 | 3,413,000 | 15,972,000 | 349,285 | 3,355,000 | 634,967,000 | 435,009,000 | 36,708,000 | |
| 2/7/2020 | 13,000,000 | 6,978,000 | 2,970,000 | 16,020,000 | 77,570 | 7,459,000 | 634,967,000 | 442,468,000 | 38,276,000 | |
| 2/14/2020 | 13,000,000 | 6,547,000 | 3,564,000 | 16,210,000 | 286,285 | 415,000 | 634,967,000 | 442,883,000 | 38,243,000 | |