Russia's Oil Production Recalculated, April 2020

Published in Educational.

Russia’s Ministry of Energy released their April 2020 report for crude oil and condensates. It amounts to 11,348,685 barrels per day in production, 5,430,467 barrels per day in exports and 5,392,595 barrels per day in refining. This would result in an implied inventory build/increase of only 15,768,663 barrels for the month. In their nearly-uninterrupted inventory builds since going public with their data in 2013, the implied accumulative storage build would be a staggering 685,067,510 barrels, which doesn’t make sense for a country with less than 100 million barrels of storage space. Therefore, if we apply our method of removing the monthly excess from the reported production, the March production would look like this (in red) instead: 10,823,063 barrels per day.

If you examine the graph, you will see that after each dip (recalculated production line), there was a single spike after climbing back out of the hole they found themselves in after the organic chloride contamination saga.

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