Russia's Oil Production in March 2020, Recalculated

Published in Educational. ∼ Updated Oct 19, 2021

Russia’s Ministry of Energy released their March 2020 report for crude oil and condensates. It amounts to 11,293,804 barrels per day in production, 5,069,050 barrels per day in exports and 5,933,540 barrels per day in refining. This would result in an implied inventory build/increase of only 9,027,628 barrels for the month. In their nearly-uninterrupted inventory builds since going public with their data in 2013, the implied accumulative storage build would be a staggering 670,067,032 barrels, which doesn’t make sense for a country with less than 100 million barrels of storage space. Therefore, if we apply our method of removing the monthly excess from the reported production, the March production would look like this (in red) instead: 11,002,590 barrels per day.

If you examine the graph, you will see that after each dip (recalculated production line), there was a single spike after climbing back out of the hole they found themselves in after the organic chloride contamination saga.

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