The Two Versions Of Russia's October Oil Production

Published in Data. ∼ Updated Jul 11, 2020

Russia’s Ministry of Energy released their October report for crude oil and condensates. It amounts to 11.412 million barrels per day in production, 5.5 million barrels per day in exports and 5.542 million barrels per day in refining. This would result in an inventory build of 11.274 million barrels for the month. In their nearly-uninterrupted inventory builds since going public with their data in 2013, the implied accumulative storage build would be 571,400,900 barrels, which doesn’t make sense for a country with less than 100 million barrels of storage space. Therefore, if we apply our method of removing the monthly excess from the production, the October production would look like this (in red) instead: 11.048 million barrels per day. It looks like 11 million barrels per day is Russia’s glass ceiling. It won’t be too much of a surprise if they agree to a production cut like they did two years ago.

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