Russia's Production Numbers Ahead Of Tomorrow's OPEC Meeting

Published in Data. ∼ Updated Jul 7, 2020

Russia’s Ministry of Energy released their November report for crude oil and condensates. It amounts to 11.369 million barrels per day in production, 5.295 million barrels per day in exports and 5.8 million barrels per day in refining. This would result in an inventory build of nearly 8.2 million barrels for the month. In their nearly-uninterrupted inventory builds since going public with their data in 2013, the implied accumulative storage build would be 579,238,136 barrels, which doesn’t make sense for a country with less than 100 million barrels of storage space. Therefore, if we apply our method of removing the monthly excess from the production, the November production would look like this (in red) instead: 11.096 million barrels per day. It looks like 11 million barrels per day is Russia’s glass ceiling. At the same time, they’re caught in a wedge because they can’t drop production too much either. It’s been said that they’re ready to cut by 150,000 bpd, but Saudi Arabia won’t be too happy because then they’d have to cut more on their end if this is going to be a meaningful effort tomorrow at OPEC. So now a demand of 300,000 bpd was placed on Russia. That’s nearly 3%. Meanwhile, the Canadian province of Alberta just cut 8.7% of their production, equivalent to 325,000 bpd; and they’re not even part of the OPEC+ constellation.

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